Western Carolina

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	215.0
Current RPI:	215
Expected SOS:	142
Current SOS:	142
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	199
Expected OOC SOS:	70

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	215.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	A	85-57	L	0%
11-13	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	102-51	L	0%
11-19	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	92-64	L	0%
11-21	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	85-76	L	0%
11-24	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	N	89-65	L	0%
11-25	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	N	82-72	W	100%
11-30	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	69-60	L	0%
12-4	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	72-71	W	100%
12-6	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	A	104-61	L	0%
12-17	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	A	72-76	W	100%
12-19	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	61-72	L	0%
12-30	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	79-81	W	100%
1-4	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	63-75	W	100%
1-6	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	85-71	L	0%
1-10	Mercer (174.0)	SC	H	58-56	W	100%
1-13	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	H	55-66	L	0%
1-15	VMI (313.0)	SC	H	65-58	W	100%
1-20	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	66-50	L	0%
1-27	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	100-66	L	0%
1-29	Wofford (129.0)	SC	A	77-68	L	0%
2-1	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	H	70-68	W	100%
2-3	Samford (296.0)	SC	H	88-71	W	100%
2-8	VMI (313.0)	SC	A	60-72	W	100%
2-10	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	65-48	L	0%
2-15	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	69-84	L	0%
2-17	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	H	61-72	L	0%
2-20	Mercer (174.0)	SC	A	81-64	L	0%
2-23	Furman (97.0)	SC	H	55-78	L	0%
2-25	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	H	92-75	W	100%
3-3	Furman (97.0)	SC	N	97-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Carolina	SC	26.42	26.42	38.64	38.64	-6.00	-6.00
Furman	SC	5.97	5.97	64.29	64.29	1.70	1.70
UNC Greensboro	SC	4.47	4.47	75.86	75.86	2.31	2.31
East Tennessee St.	SC	4.47	4.47	70.00	70.00	1.79	1.79
Wofford	SC	4.46	4.46	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
The Citadel	SC	4.41	4.41	29.63	29.63	-1.80	-1.80
Chattanooga	SC	4.38	4.38	27.59	27.59	-1.96	-1.96
Samford	SC	4.38	4.38	25.00	25.00	-2.19	-2.19
Mercer	SC	4.33	4.33	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
VMI	SC	4.32	4.32	26.92	26.92	-1.99	-1.99
UNC Asheville	BSth	1.94	1.94	63.33	63.33	0.52	0.52
High Point	BSth	1.86	1.86	38.46	38.46	-0.43	-0.43
Clemson	ACC	1.80	1.80	70.97	70.97	0.75	0.75
North Carolina	ACC	1.77	1.77	70.59	70.59	0.73	0.73
Alabama A&M	SWAC	1.75	1.75	10.00	10.00	-1.40	-1.40
UT Arlington	SB	1.75	1.75	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
Appalachian St.	SB	1.74	1.74	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Minnesota	B10	1.72	1.72	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
College of Charleston	CAA	1.70	1.70	76.67	76.67	0.91	0.91
Massachusetts	A10	1.69	1.69	37.50	37.50	-0.42	-0.42
Cincinnati	Amer	1.67	1.67	87.88	87.88	1.26	1.26
Longwood	BSth	0.26	0.26	13.33	13.33	-0.19	-0.19
Liberty	BSth	0.25	0.25	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.23	0.23	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Georgia St.	SB	0.21	0.21	68.75	68.75	0.08	0.08
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.20	0.20	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Elon	CAA	0.19	0.19	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	Amer	0.18	0.18	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Radford	BSth	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.17	0.17	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Ohio St.	B10	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.15	0.15	93.94	93.94	0.13	0.13
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.11	0.11	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00